Rates & Curve

• The short end drifted up a few bps while 10s–30s fell ~9–10 bps on the week, leaving the curve a touch flatter (2s10s at +46 bps) but still meaningfully positive.
• Zoom out a month and the belly is the real story — 2s through 7s are +18 to +26 bps, so most of the recent repricing has hit the reinvestment sweet spot.
• SOFR popped +13 bps to 3.63% even with Fed Funds unchanged, a hint of funding-market firmness worth watching into month-end.

Macro

• Markets are leaning dovish into the June 17 FOMC — 64% odds of a 25 bp cut vs. 33% hold — and Waller's "Policy Risks Have Changed" speech fits that tone.
• Breakevens slipped (5Y -9 bps on the month to 2.54%), so the bond market isn't worried about an inflation re-acceleration even with stocks at highs and the dollar firm.
• Unemployment steady at 4.3% and 30Y mortgages up to 6.53% (+30 bps on the month) — housing affordability isn't getting easier, which keeps a lid on mortgage demand.

What it means for you

• If the Fed cuts in June as priced, your liability costs (non-maturity deposits, FHLB, brokered CDs) should start easing — but with the belly +20ish bps on the month, you can still lock in better reinvestment yields now than a month ago.
• A flatter long end (10Y -9 bps, 30Y -10 bps on the week) compresses the pickup from extending duration in the bond book; the 3–7Y part of the curve looks like the better risk-adjusted spot for ladder reinvestments.
• Higher mortgage rates plus a likely cut means deposit betas on the way down could lag loan repricing — worth pressure-testing NIM under a "cut soon, curve stays steep front-end" scenario rather than a parallel shift.